2025 Market Predictions: What Building Product Companies Need to Know

00:12 - Reflecting on 2024: Predictions and outcomes
 

01:22 - Commercial market performance: Insights and surprises
 

03:49 - Residential market churn and emerging opportunities
 

08:06 - Stabilization, competition, and the need for smarter strategies in 2025
 

12:19 - Operational investments: The key to margin expansion and success
 

17:02 - The implications of mergers and acquisitions in the building products industry

Jim Wueste, Vice President of Waterproofing at Carlisle, is a seasoned leader in the building materials industry. With extensive experience across multiple companies, Jim is known for building high-performance teams and driving strategic growth. At Nichiha, he played a pivotal role in transforming the company into a leading U.S. cladding manufacturer through innovative sales strategies and operational improvements. Skilled in technical sales and process optimization, Jim excels at aligning cross-functional teams to achieve long-term success. Jim’s expertise and forward-thinking approach continue to shape the industry, making him a trusted voice in navigating its challenges and opportunities.

Jim reflected on a year filled with unpredictable rate changes and surprising resilience in the commercial market. Despite being “1 million percent” convinced that federal rate cuts would start in March.

However, his prediction that the commercial market would outperform expectations proved correct. “Anything financed and already turning dirt kept moving forward,” he noted, highlighting the momentum that carried projects through an otherwise turbulent economic environment.

Beth added her perspective, pointing out how many companies tempered their expectations for 2024 after years of ambitious projections.

... For the last several years we've been saying, can we keep selling more like from a material side? … When you watch everybody projecting 20, 25, 50% increase year over year. I'm like, again, are we sure? … Saying the idea that everything just continually goes up year over year… is unlikely.” - Beth PopNikolov

Competition is expected to intensify significantly in 2025, with homeowners seeking multiple quotes and businesses needing to focus more on customer acquisition. Beth highlights this shift as an opportunity for companies to excel by adding value and innovating, emphasizing that businesses can no longer rely on past strategies.

"Every sales consultant I know says 75% of the conversations I have are customer acquisition teaching.” - Beth PopNikolov

She sees this increased competition as a positive force, driving companies to refine their offerings and engage more effectively with customers. Beth also warns that businesses must stay agile and proactive to remain competitive in this environment.

"If you’re doing what you’ve always done, you’re going to get caught unaware next year.” - Beth PopNikolov

Economic uncertainty, driven by potential tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, will remain a critical factor for 2025. While tariffs may seem likely, Jim is skeptical about their implementation, noting logistical challenges and political resistance.

"I don't think we will have the tariffs that have been proposed... It sounds great on the campaign trail… There isn’t the infrastructure.” - Jim Wueste

Interest rates are another key variable. Though Jim admits his predictions for 2024 were off, he foresees gradual rate reductions in 2025, which could reinvigorate construction projects by improving financing conditions.

... So my caveat being tariffs don't go into place. I think building material stocks will do very well next year.” - Jim Wueste

Companies that invested in automation and operational improvements during the COVID-19 pandemic are poised to see returns on those investments in 2025. With new equipment and streamlined processes coming online, these businesses can enhance productivity and profitability in an increasingly competitive market.

... During COVID if you wanted automated equipment, it's still two years for some gear, for some electronics and so a lot of that capital is going to flow through next year... That’s how you’re going to get margin expansion.” - Jim Wueste

He emphasizes that operational efficiency will be crucial for building product companies, especially as price-driven growth becomes harder to achieve.

Success in 2025 will favor companies that prioritize execution, innovation, and customer-centricity. Beth and Jim both agree that strong relationships and effective strategies will be key differentiators in the year ahead.

So I think who wins, hopefully is the ones who are working at it the hardest and adding the most value. At the least, it's the ones who are able to watch and adjust.” - Beth PopNikolov

Jim adds that strong execution in the field, particularly by sales teams, will be a decisive factor. Companies that foster strong relationships with contractors, provide reliable products, deliver exceptional service, integrate themselves seamlessly into their customers’ operations, and solve their pain points will be best positioned for success.

"You’ve got to be in front of your contractors all the time... They need to see you as part of their team.” - Jim Wueste

Have more questions for Jim Wueste? You can connect with him on LinkedIn.

SBMM is co-hosted by Venveo’s Founder, Zach Williams and Venveo’s CEO, Beth PopNikolov.